The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing CO_dos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.

Introduction

There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO₂ emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .

Program figure modelling off urbanization lower than times limits from inside the China

Even in the event metropolitan extension carry out speed energy use 17,18,19 , the new automotive electricity fool around with is likely to correlate adversely towards the urbanization height on account of economic climates away from scale 20,21,twenty-two . For instance, more urbanized portion inside Canada ate lower for every single capita opportunity 23 . On top of that, total energy usage of outlying property try larger than that urban property, while the more 85% out of rural houses play with ineffective solid-fuel twenty four . According to Consumer Research Program, 275 towns and cities internationally fool around with hydropower, 189 locations use snap power, and you can 184 locations explore solar power solar feeld kodu nedir pv fuel. At the very least a hundred towns fool around with renewable power to attain 70% away from strength, such as for example Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and Nairobi. In the us, 58 metropolises, as well as Atlanta and you can Hillcrest, enjoys intends to changeover to help you a hundred% clean and renewable energy. Toward existing technology and energy stores, it’s likely to get to one hundred% renewable energy supply international and you will get to zero carbon dioxide pollutants from the 2025. The worldwide fuel generation build for the 2050 is anticipated just like the lower than: solar power photovoltaic (69%), breeze fuel (18%), hydropower (8%), and you can biomass (2%), which have energy storage batteries layer 31% from electricity request. It’s listed that most of the world’s prominent dams and energy herbs are in China, if you’re Yunnan Province and you will Guizhou Province contribute 29% away from China’s hydropower. The Jinsha Lake by yourself has actually good 9-peak dam. The fresh strength created by these types of hydropower are truly sent so you can Guangdong and you will Hong-kong from high-voltage grid. Due to the abundant hydropower information readily available for air conditioning, Guizhou Province has be China’s most significant study cardiovascular system ft. During the 2018, Apple Company situated this new iCloud research cardiovascular system during the Guizhou. Just about every highest It business off China provides put up studies locations for the Guizhou, together with Alibaba, Huawei, and you may China Cellular.

Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO₂ emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO₂ emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.